Forecasting emissions through Kaya identity using Neural ODEs (Proposals Track)

Pierre Browne (Imperial College London)

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Time-series Analysis Climate Policy Power & Energy


Starting from Kaya identity, we used a Neural ODE model to predict the evolution of several indicators related to carbon emissions, on a country-level : population, GDP per capita, energy intensity of GDP, carbon intensity of energy. We compared the model with a baseline statistical model - VAR - and obtained good performances. We conclude that this machine-learning approach can be used to produce a wide range of results and give relevant insight to policymakers.

Recorded Talk (direct link)