Coupling Agent-based Modeling and Life Cycle Assessment to Analyze Trade-offs in Resilient Energy Transitions (Papers Track)
Beichen Zhang (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory); Mohammed Tamim Zaki (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory); Hanna Breunig (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory); Newsha Ajami (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)
Abstract
Transitioning to sustainable and resilient energy systems requires navigating complex and interdependent trade-offs across environmental, social, and resource dimensions. Neglecting these trade-offs can lead to unintended consequences across sectors. However, existing assessments often evaluate the emerging energy pathways and their impacts in silos, overlooking critical interactions such as regional resource competition and cumulative impacts. We present an integrated modeling framework that couples agent-based modeling and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to simulate how energy transition pathways interact with regional resource competition, ecological constraints, and community-level burdens. We apply the model to a case study in Southern California. Results demonstrate how integrated and multi-scale decision-making can shape the energy pathway deployment and reveal spatially explicit trade-offs under scenario-driven constraints. This modeling framework can further support more adaptive and resilient energy transition planning across spatial and institutional scales.