Probabilistic land cover modeling via deep autoregressive models (Papers Track)

Christopher Krapu (Duke University); Ryan Calder (Virginia Tech); Mark Borsuk (Duke University)

Poster File NeurIPS 2023 Poster Cite
Forests Uncertainty Quantification & Robustness


Land use and land cover (LULC) modeling is a challenging task due to long-range dependencies between geographic features and distinct spatial patterns related in topography, ecology, and human development. We explore the usage of a modified Pixel Constrained CNN as applied to inpainting for categorical image data from the National Land Cover Database for producing a diverse set of land use counterfactual scenarios. We find that this approach is effective for producing a distribution of realistic image completions in certain masking configurations. However, the resulting distribution is not well-calibrated in terms of spatial summary statistics commonly used with LULC data and exhibits substantial underdispersion.